Causal nexus between fiscal deficit and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Asia

Abstract

The impact of fiscal deficit on economic growth is one of the most widely debated issues among economists and policy makers in both developed and developing countries in the recent period. This paper seeks to examine the impact of fiscal deficit on economic growth in selected South Asian countries, namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka using time series annual data over the period 1980 to 2014. The paper uses cointegration analysis, error correction modelling and Granger causality test under a Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework. The results from this study confirmed that the fiscal deficit has a negative impact on economic growth in the South Asian countries considered in this study except Nepal, which confirmed the positive impact. The results also highlighted that the direction of causality for the SAARC countries is mixed where fiscal deficit causes economic growth for Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan, but the reverse is true for India and Sri Lanka.