Applicability of the energy-led growth hypothesis in APEC economies: insights from a panel data approach

Abstract

This study examines the energy-led growth (ELG) hypothesis across 19 APEC economies from 1990 to 2023 using panel data methods. The GDP per capita is analyzed alongside energy consumption, capital formation, labor force participation, trade openness, human capital, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Applying second-generation econometric techniques – including the CIPS unit root test, Pedroni cointegration, FMOLS, and Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test – the results confirm long-run cointegration among variables. Energy consumption exerts a significant positive effect on growth, validating the ELG hypothesis. Gross capital formation, trade openness, and human capital also enhance growth, while COVID-19 negatively impacts development. Labor force participation shows limited short-run influence. Causality tests reveal unidirectional causality from energy to GDP and trade, and bidirectional links between GDP and capital, and trade and human capital. The findings underscore the need for coordinated energy, trade, and human capital policies in APEC economies.