AN INFLUX OF TOURIST ARRIVALS BETWEEN EASTER ATTACK AND COVID-19 IN SRI LANKA

Abstract

Sri Lankan tourism industry was subjected to various shock events such as the Easter Sunday attack and the COVID-19 pandemic and this study aims to examine the impact of Easter Sunday attack and the COVID-19 on Tourist Arrivals (TA). Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was used to examine the impact of shock events on TA and was analyzed using STATA. ARIMA (2,1,1) model was used to forecast TA from April 2019 to May 2021 and was compared against the actual in achieving the research aim. The forecasted TA indicated a sudden drop from March 2019 to May 2021, revealing that the two selected shock events’ impact was evidently negative. The study further concludes that Sri Lanka experienced a significant drop in TA following the Easter Sunday attack but recovered gradually; however, the TA has been negatively impacted due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the impacts may remain for a moderately extensive period.