Inference-Driven Logistic Regression Approach for Identifying Risk Factors of Myopia

Abstract

Myopia is a prevalent refractive error among children and adolescents and represents an increasing global public health issue. The present study aims to identify key risk and protective factors associated with myopia onset through statistical inference. A real-world myopia dataset from the R statistical package, which has been referenced in prior research for theoretical validation and factor identification, was analyzed. This investigation extends previous work by utilizing statistical inference to distinguish between variables that elevate myopia risk and those that confer protection. The dataset comprises 618 individuals who were non-myopic at baseline and were observed over a period of at least five years. During this period, 17 clinical and behavioral variables were recorded. Predictor variables include age, spherical equivalent refraction (SPHEQ), axial length (AL), anterior chamber depth (ACD), lens thickness (LT), vitreous chamber depth (VCD), and time spent on activities such as sports (SPORTHR), reading (READHR), computer use (COMPHR), studying (STUDYHR), and watching television (TVHR). The binary response variable was coded as 1 for myopic and 0 otherwise. Logistic regression coefficients were estimated using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Findings indicated that age, SPHEQ, AL, SPORTHR, STUDYHR, and TVHR exhibited negative coefficients, suggesting that increases in these variables are associated with a reduced risk of developing myopia. Conversely, positive coefficients for ACD, LT, VCD, READHR, and COMPHR point to elevated myopia risk. At the 5% significance level, SPHEQ and SPORTHR emerged as statistically significant predictors, while READHR and STUDYHR achieved significance at the 10% level. At the 90% confidence interval for odds ratios, SPHEQ, SPORTHR, and STUDYHR show protective effects (odds ratios < 1), whereas READHR is linked to greater risk; these protective effects remain significant at the 95% level. In summary, reduced reading time, increased participation in sports and studying, along with specific ocular measurements, may mitigate the risk of myopia development.